If you don’t get the reference to the elephant, please take a sec to go read my last post .  Go ahead, I’ll wait … Got it?  Okay!

So I did some quick research and found that according to RealtyTrac the Notice of Default filings (NODs) in Palmdale and Lancaster has been rising steadily since January.  Yes, the elephant is now going to whack the ignorant upside the head!

Can you tell when the foreclosure moratorium was lifted?  That’s a 54.4% increase in NOD filings from Feb 2009 to March 2009!

Now take a look at the difference from the 4th Quarter of 2008 to the 1st Quarter of 2009 …

Here you’re looking at a whopping 87.7% increase in NOD filings!

So, bottom line, what does this all mean?  I think it means we’re in for another huge increase in inventory which may mean some more softening of prices and buyer demand.  The increase in market activity that everyone has been cheering about will either be short-lived OR will see a big influx of investors coming into the market.

Up until now, most of the REO / Bank-Owned properties I sell have been to first-time home buyers.  If the $8000 tax credit and the favorable interest rates continue to hold we may still be OK.  If they don’t or if it becomes harder to finance investment properties our Palmdale / Lancaster housing market may REALLY tank.

I was accused by some on my last post of being filled with doom-and-gloom.  On the contrary, I am just being realistic here.  Yes, our market has been going along at a pretty good clip.  Hell, my 2008 sales numbers were my best ever!  But these NOD numbers may be a foreshadowing to a tailspin even worse than what we saw in 2007.  The whole point of this post and my last were to bring to light what people are NOT talking about.  You can’t take the good without the bad.

So, people keep saying we’re at the bottom of the market here in Palmdale / Lancaster.  After seeing these numbers, what say you?