Looking for places to watch Fourth of July fireworks in the Antelope Valley area? Well, to celebrate Independence Day 2010 you’ll have two chances!

To kick off the weekend, you can spend a wonderful evening in the park with the 2101 season opening of Palmdale’s Starlight Concert Series … Come on out to Marie Kerr Park located at Rancho Vista Blvd and 30th St West and for the easy-on-the-wallet fee of $5.00/ticket (children under 12 are free!) you will enjoy the music of the multi-platinum country/pop group LONESTAR! Following the show will be Palmdale’s fireworks spectacular! The show begins at 8pm on JULY 3RD, 2010.

Yes, you read that right … Palmdale’s 2010 fireworks show is going to be on July 3rd, NOT July 4th.

Didn’t get enough fireworks?  On July 4th, 2010 the City of Lancaster will have a fantastic display at the Antelope Valley Fairgrounds.  The grandstands open at 8pm and admission to the fireworks show is FREE!

Happy Independence Day and enjoy the Antelope Valley fireworks shows!

Photo Credit: fireworks from Crestock Images

Here’s some awesome news in the midst of all the turmoil in this crazy Antelope Valley housing market! This was just sent to me from Joseph Cabral down at Lancaster City Hall …

City of Lancaster Sheriff’s Station Ranks at the Top in Overall Crime Reduction Throughout Los Angeles County

Lancaster, CA. September 23, 2009 — The City of Lancaster’s Sheriff’s Station ranks second in overall crime reduction compared to all Sheriff’s stations in Los Angeles County thus far this year. According to statistics recently released by the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department, the Lancaster station has accomplished a 22.3 percent drop in its crime rate thus far in 2009 compared to the same period in 2008.

“The Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department continues to do a truly remarkable job, decreasing violent crime by 10 percent and property crime by 11 percent throughout their policing areas,” remarked Mayor R. Rex Parris. “It is a testament to the extraordinary efforts of the deputies at the Lancaster Sheriff’s Station that our part one crime rate has decreased more than double that percentage during the same period. I applaud Captain Axel Anderson, the Lancaster deputies, our Criminal Justice Commission, and the many community stakeholders who have been participating to make Lancaster a truly safe place to live.”

City officials credit this success to a wide variety of innovative crime-fighting tactics. “In spite of economic conditions which had analysts predicting we would experience an increase in crime, we have made a great deal of progress throughout the past year in making our residents safer,” said City Manager Mark Bozigian. “Our public safety efforts our second to none and the results are undeniable.”

These efforts include last summer’s launch of a Criminal Justice Commission, which engages various segments of the community in the fight against crime. In July 2008, the City and the Sheriff’s Department created the Burglary Suppression Team, a unit devoted solely to solving and preventing burglary cases.

In February, the Lancaster Sheriff’s Station was named LA County’s first research and development station. This designation affords the station and the City a number of opportunities to test new techniques in crime reduction and prevention.

The City and Sheriffs have also continued other aggressive initiatives, including the Lancaster Community Appreciation Project (LAN-CAP), a special team that focuses on rental properties. The Sheriff’s High-Impact Team targets problematic areas for 90-day periods to reduce crime. Also ongoing is the City’s partnership with the Sheriff’s Department and the California Highway Patrol in an anti-gang task force.

Since mid-2008, Lancaster’s Neighborhood Watch groups have increased more than 50 percent, from 116 to 180. During the same period, the number of Business Watch groups has increased nearly tenfold, from 18 to 168.

“Citizen involvement has been an absolutely essential component of our crime-fighting strategy,” added Mayor Parris. “The Sheriff’s Station and the City simply cannot accomplish this alone. Our residents have provided a resounding response to our call for involvement.”

While Lancaster has seen great success with its many crime reduction efforts, still more are in the works. Late August saw the launch of the Target-Oriented Policing/ Parole Fugitive Apprehension Detail (TOP/PFAD), the evolution of a special unit formerly known simply as TOP. TOP/PFAD will focus on crime prevention in light of the hundreds of parolees who are set to be released early by the State of California during the next two years.

A high-tech crime reduction tool is also in development. Officials are currently researching ways to implement a 360-degree aerial surveillance camera which will be mounted on the bottom of a small plane. The system will have the capability to record close-ups from as far as five miles away, allowing law enforcement officials to zoom in on any location.

“I am proud of our community’s tireless efforts to combat crime, but make no mistake – we are not resting on our laurels,” said Parris. “Nor are we simply playing a numbers game here. We are working to protect our children, spouses and friends from those who wish to do them harm. We are in this fight for the long haul, and we will not rest.”

Other Sheriff’s Stations included in the top five largest crime drops throughout the County were Century City, Norwalk and Walnut. Ranked first was Avalon, a City of approximately 3,100 located on Santa Catalina Island.

If you don’t get the reference to the elephant, please take a sec to go read my last post .  Go ahead, I’ll wait … Got it?  Okay!

So I did some quick research and found that according to RealtyTrac the Notice of Default filings (NODs) in Palmdale and Lancaster has been rising steadily since January.  Yes, the elephant is now going to whack the ignorant upside the head!

Can you tell when the foreclosure moratorium was lifted?  That’s a 54.4% increase in NOD filings from Feb 2009 to March 2009!

Now take a look at the difference from the 4th Quarter of 2008 to the 1st Quarter of 2009 …

Here you’re looking at a whopping 87.7% increase in NOD filings!

So, bottom line, what does this all mean?  I think it means we’re in for another huge increase in inventory which may mean some more softening of prices and buyer demand.  The increase in market activity that everyone has been cheering about will either be short-lived OR will see a big influx of investors coming into the market.

Up until now, most of the REO / Bank-Owned properties I sell have been to first-time home buyers.  If the $8000 tax credit and the favorable interest rates continue to hold we may still be OK.  If they don’t or if it becomes harder to finance investment properties our Palmdale / Lancaster housing market may REALLY tank.

I was accused by some on my last post of being filled with doom-and-gloom.  On the contrary, I am just being realistic here.  Yes, our market has been going along at a pretty good clip.  Hell, my 2008 sales numbers were my best ever!  But these NOD numbers may be a foreshadowing to a tailspin even worse than what we saw in 2007.  The whole point of this post and my last were to bring to light what people are NOT talking about.  You can’t take the good without the bad.

So, people keep saying we’re at the bottom of the market here in Palmdale / Lancaster.  After seeing these numbers, what say you?

Yes, as reported by the AV Press today, home sales in the Antelope Valley (Palmdale / Lancaster, CA) are way WAY up from last year … here’s the numbers released by the Greater Antelope Valley Association of REALTORS:

• 773 homes sold in March 2009 (282 in March 2008)
• 2111 Homes sold Jan 2009-Mar 2009 (654 sold Jan-Mar 2008)
• Average sales price $129,390 in March 2009 (DOWN 46% from March 2008)
• Average sales price $140,401 Jan-Mar 2009 (DOWN 44% from Jan-March 2008)
• About 2500-3000 active listings (DOWN from about 5500 Q4 2008)

So what does this mean? A few things, in my opinion.

First of all, prices are at a level that many homes can be purchased here in the Palmdale / Lancaster area for about the same or less than it costs to rent. Why throw your cash down the toilet by handing it to a landlord when you can be buying your own piece of the American Dream??  If you have good credit and can prove your income, there are plenty of banks dying to give you a loan contrary to all the BS most media outlets (or even your own President for God sakes) would have you believe!  Loans are being made every day and I’ve got the closed transaction history to prove it!

Secondly, I believe the $8000 tax credit for home buyers has had a positive effect.  I know if I were a first-time buyer looking for a home the Perfect Storm of historically low interest rates, $8000 from Uncle Sam, and deep discounts on REO / Bank-Owned homes here in the Antelope Valley would have me pulling out my checkbook!

How about the drop in prices? Why are prices still dropping if the buyer activity is increasing??  Well, here’s the thing … About 85-90% of the housing market in Palmdale / Lancaster is either REO / Bank-Owned homes or they are short-sale listings. Yes, banks want to maximize profit – I should say minimize their loss – but the main goal is to get the assets off their books as quickly as possible.  So this means price reductions until the house gets sold!  Yes, the falling prices has slowed to about 1-2% per month (down from as much as 5% in 2007-2008) but they’re still coming down.  The only thing really saving us right now are multiple offers bidding the prices UP when the sweet-spot is hit on the list price.

Now, about that elephant … What no one seems to be talking about here is what I am most worried about when people ask me about the bottom of the market here in the Palmdale / Lancaster area.  You notice from the stats above that our available inventory has dropped substantially from last year.  You know when that happened?  Right about January 1st when many REO and short-sale listings didn’t get SOLD but they EXPIRED.  What else has been happening in the foreclosure market?  The banks have all been adhering to a moratorium on foreclosures and also have been sitting on their toxic assets waiting to see what ‘ol Obama’s bailout was going to entail.  This is giving us an artificially low inventory!

As of last week all of the moratoriums have been lifted. Banks are finally organizing their pre-foreclosure work-out plans.  They have analyzed their backlog of bad loans and more-or-less know who will qualify for a loan modification.  Those loans that can’t be worked out they are now moving forward with the foreclosure process.

Here’s some more stats …

Notice of Default Filings (The first phase of the foreclosure process)

• JAN 2009 – 968
• FEB 2009 – 1338
• MAR 2009 – 1472

As you can see, they are on the rise again.  At least 80% of those NODs will go through the foreclosure process and end up being REO / Bank-owned homes for sale.  This is just the tip of the ice burg.  How about all the loans that were bad before the moratorium was lifted?  I predict we are going to see some drastically higher NOD filings in the coming months.

Now here’s the thing – when these banks start putting these homes on the market that they’ve been sitting on since about last September the inventory of available homes for sale it going to shoot back up.  How high?  Who knows … But when it does, the current buyer frenzy that may be partially attributed to a perceived bottoming-out of the market may soften.  The buyers will have more homes to choose from and their sense of urgency lost.  This may send home prices into even more of a tailspin and this is what I am most concerned about.

People ask me all the time if I think the market has bottomed out.  I say who knows … I wish I had a crystal ball.  I just wish the government hadn’t stepped in and interfered with this market correction.  I feel that they have delayed the recovery here in the Palmdale / Lancaster area for 2-3 years if not more.  Now we have a potentially HUGE backlog of REO homes for sale that are going to need to be dumped and could potentially be even more devastating to our market values than what we have seen to date.

What do you think? Feel free to comment below … And if you have any questions or are looking for a smokin’ deal on bank-owned / REO properties here in Palmdale or Lancaster, drop me a line!

I just received the following communication from the City of Lancaster … Please contact your local representative to stop this from becoming reality!  Lancaster has been working hard to decrease its crime rate.  We don’t need the added stigma of high-risk criminals moving into our back yards.  Along with the inmates comes their friends to visit … Help keep our valley safe!

Dear Citizens:

The City of Lancaster has recently enjoyed tremendous cuts in our crime rate as we continue to aggressively combat criminal and gang activity.  This has been a community led battle which has achieved lasting results and restored calm to our neighborhoods.

As we speak, however, state agencies are looking to compromise Lancaster’s fight to restore safety to the Antelope Valley by advancing plans to increase the concentration of sex offenders and violent criminals at the California State Prison in Lancaster.  This is being done with blatant disregard for our community’s safety, compromising the efforts we have all made to end violence in City neighborhoods.  As the Mayor of Lancaster, I implore all residents and members of the greater Antelope Valley to help protest these actions and stop this unfair targeting of our community.

The California Department of Correction and Rehabilitation plans to convert the C Yard at the California State Prison – Los Angeles County in Lancaster into a Level Four Special Needs yard, a move that will make the prison home to some of the worst inmates in the entire state.  Please help combat these plans by forwarding letters to your elected officials in opposition to these horrific plans.

You may access a letter opposing the proposed prison conversion by clicking here .  You may copy the content of the letter, and paste it into the body of your email. Using the email addresses provided, please sign and forward the opposition letter to your elected officials and representatives.

Be sure to provide a closing to the letter with your name, and feel free to personalize the letter in any other way you see fit.  You may also choose to print the letter for standard mailing. For more information on the prison yard conversion, please read the City’s press release or watch a special video message regarding this issue.

If you have any questions please feel free to contact the City at (661) 723-6000 or log onto www.cityoflancasterca.org .  Also, make sure to sign up for CityLink updates to receive breaking news regarding this and other City issues.

Thank you again for your help. I am confident that together we can fight this injustice and continue our efforts to make the Antelope Valley the safest community in America.

Respectfully,

R. Rex Parris,

Mayor of Lancaster

Send your emails and letters to the following individuals:

Matthew Cate, Secretary of the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation
matt.cate@cdcr.ca.gov
1515 S Street, Suite 502 South
Sacramento, CA 95811
Phone: (916) 323-6001

Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger
governor@governor.ca.gov
Los Angeles Office:
300 South Spring St, Suite 16701
Los Angeles, CA 90013
Phone: (213) 897-0322
Fax: (213) 897-0319

Senator George Runner
senator.runner@sen.ca.gov
Lancaster Office:
848 W. Lancaster Boulevard, Suite 101
Lancaster, CA 93534
Phone: (661) 729-6232
Fax: (661) 729-1683

Congressman, Howard "Buck" McKeon
http://mckeon.house.gov/contact.shtml
Palmdale Office:
1008 W. Ave M-14, Suite E-1
Palmdale, CA 93551

Congressman, Kevin McCarthy
http://kevinmccarthy.house.gov/showpage.asp?ID=69
4100 Empire Drive, Suite 150
Bakersfield, CA 93309

Assemblyman Steve Knight

http://republican.assembly.ca.gov/member/36/?p=email

Antelope Valley District Office:
41319 12th Street W, Suite 105
Palmdale, CA 93551
(661) 267-7636
(661) 267-7736 fax

Senator Dianne Feinstein
http://feinstein.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=ContactUS.EmailMe
Los Angeles Office:
11111 Santa Monica Boulevard, Suite 915
Los Angeles, CA 90025

Senator Barbara Boxer
http://boxer.senate.gov/contact/email/policy.cfm
Los Angeles Office:
312 N. Spring Street, Suite 1748
Los Angeles, CA 90012

This Saturday, April 11th, 2009 from 9AM to 12PM is our Boy Scout Troop 444′s Annual Pancake Breakfast. Tickets purchased at the door go towards the troop funds so we can continue to provide an excellent program for our Scouts!

The event is held at the Palmdale Elks Lodge at 2705 East Avenue Q between 25th and 30th St E.

$5.00 donation gets you all the pancakes, sausage, juice, and coffee you can eat/drink! Come over and enjoy the food and the service (the Scouts do it all!)

If you have any questions please give me a call at (661) 285-5975 x101

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